Printable Version

Global Trends 2020

A CNP Conversation with Dr. David Gordon

March 2, 2007

After a tough couple of weeks briefing Congress on the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq, David Gordon, vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), joined CNP to discuss the bigger strategic picture.

Far removed from the short-term and often-caveated NIEs that examine more circumscribed issues like Iran, global terrorism trends, and weapons of mass destruction, every four years the NIC surveys America’s strategic horizon in a product called “Global Trends.” The third in the series is Mapping the Global Future.

Click here to read the full report.

In the current edition, the Global Trends team asked what will be the primary national security challenges out to 2020. Released in 2004, the team looked at four alternative future scenarios. One, called "Davos World," looked at the challenges of sustaining an integrated globalization. "Pax Americana" looked at the viability of extending the American unipolar moment. "A New Caliphate" looks at the dynamics of identity politics while "Cycle of Fear" examined the converging challenges of WMD, terror, and global power shifts.

Gordon reported that the Global Trends product has its largest impact among the strategic planners at the Pentagon. Gordon said the paper has become a substantial part of the analytical basis for the Quadrennial Defense Review, or QDR, that drives acquisitions and shapes Pentagon long-term policy.

After briefly addressing the scenarios and underlying analysis, Dr. Gordon spent some time discussing the rising challenge of global governance. Weak democracies and moderate authoritarian states are vulnerable in this age of extremism. Because of that, the United States maintains a strong interest in global institutions. But the United Nations Security Council still reflects the power relationships at the end of World War II. Whether and how that global infrastructure is updated, especially given the rise of Asia and the EU, will determine to what extent international institutions can stabilize the current period of transition.

On energy security, Gordon went beyond the conventional wisdom. Asked about the threat of energy insecurity, he said that the risk of disruption coming from an attack on global energy infrastructure is not as big a problem as is systematic under-investment in that infrastructure. In other words, while there are only a few vulnerable high-value energy targets for terrorists, the medium-term impact of static production capacity in the midst of rising demand is of much greater concern.

Perhaps the most disconcerting aspect of Dr. Gordon’s talk was his discussion of how difficult it is to get senior policy makers in both the Executive and the Congress to focus on the big picture. With two, four, and six year time horizons and a slew of crises converging, decision makers move from crisis to crisis. That’s why the NIC produces Global trends at the beginning of the presidential term in office.  

The overarching message from Dr. Gordon was that while we cannot predict the future, the dynamics that will certainly shape it are much broader than what makes it to the front pages or the nightly news. That's tough in the era of the sound byte. It means addressing major crises like Iraq or al Qaeda in the context of globalization, energy security, and global warming. Like it or not, these issues are deeply interconnected and therefore solutions will come from taking a wider view.

###