Declassified Intelligence Stresses Threat Posed by al-Qaida in Iraq

Thursday, May 31, 2007

By Mark Silva, Chicago Tribune

May 23, 2007 Wednesday

President Bush, who repeatedly has declassified select snippets of U.S. intelligence to justify the war in Iraq, revealed new details Wednesday of an al-Qaida attempt two years ago to coordinate attacks against the U.S. with operatives based in Iraq.

The president's revelation comes at a critical time at home as he pressures Democratic congressional leaders to approve a $100 billion bill for funding of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Al-Qaida leaders have repeatedly made clear they intend to strike our country again," Bush said in a commencement address at the Coast Guard Academy, again portraying the war in Iraq as central front in a global war on terror but this time attempting to tie al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden to Iraq.

Yet the president's critics say that he is selectively using the disclosures.

"We certainly don't need new declassified documents to understand the ongoing threats of al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden," said Tim Roemer, a member of the Sept. 11 Commission. At the same time, he said, "The president's focus on Iraq as a front line misstates (the situation) in terms of where the only threat is, and misdiagnoses what we need to do about it."

Democrats such as Roemer, a former Indiana congressman who now heads the Center for National Policy, have long contended that the administration reveals only intelligence that supports its case for war. "We have certainly seen, when we cherry-picked intelligence in the past, it has not resulted in good outcomes for our overall security."

The latest declassified information elaborates on a bulletin that the Homeland Security Department issued in March 2005 warning that bin Laden had enlisted Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, then his top operative in Iraq, to plan strikes in the U.S. It maintains that in January 2005 bin Laden had assigned al-Zarqawi to organize a cell.

"Bin Laden tasked the terrorist Zarqawi . . . with forming a cell to conduct terrorist attacks outside of Iraq," the president said. "Bin Laden emphasized that America should be Zarqawi's No. 1 priority."

A U.S. air strike near Baqouba killed al-Zarqawi in June 2006.

The information has been declassified because the intelligence community has tracked all leads from it and key players are dead or in custody, the White House says.

Bush said bin Laden "believes that if al-Qaida can drive us out, they can establish Iraq as a new terrorist sanctuary. . . . Victory in Iraq is important for Osama bin Laden _ and victory in Iraq is vital for the United States of America."

Yet Roemer calls the president "gravely mistaken when he claims that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror." There is no "central front" for terror, he maintains, but rather a "center of gravity" _ and al-Qaida's center is Pakistan.

Rand Beers, an assistant secretary of state during the Clinton and Bush administrations who advised Democrat John Kerry during the 2004 presidential campaign, said: "The selective release of intelligence to buttress the notion that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism undermines the intelligence community and fails to make the case."

The administration's newest release of information about al-Qaida's workings in Iraq is the latest unveiling of once-classified reports.

In early February, a White House struggling to bolster its case for an escalation of military force in Iraq released selected excerpts of a National Intelligence Estimate painting a picture of violence in Iraq that the term "civil war" could not "adequately capture."

The report, warning that a withdrawal of forces could bring "massive civilian casualties," is periodically produced by 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. The White House said its findings had supported Bush's decision to deploy an additional 21,500 troops to Iraq.

"It is this intelligence and the picture it paints that caused the president to conclude and then develop a new strategy or new approach to Iraq," Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, said at the time.

At the same time, the report served to stir debate over the nature of the conflict in Iraq, portraying a chaotic situation in which sectarian violence posed a greater threat than terrorism.

On Sept. 26, the director of national intelligence released selected "key judgments" from a National Intelligence Estimate that was made, and had been classified, in April of 2006.

It stated that, while al-Qaida's leadership had been "seriously weakened," it continued to pose the greatest threat to U.S. homeland security from any single group. Yet it also called the global jihadist movement "decentralized," lacking "a coherent global strategy" and "becoming more diffuse."

Portions of the report had been leaked in a bid to bolster support for the war as the midterm congressional elections of 2006 approached.

In October 2005, the director of national intelligence released a previously classified letter between two senior Al Qaeda leaders, Ayman al-Zawahiri and al-Zarqawi, that was dated July 9, 2005.

"We must think for a long time about our next steps and how we want to attain it, and it is my humble opinion that the Jihad in Iraq requires several incremental goals," al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's chief strategist, wrote. "The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq."

During an investigation of who leaked the identity of CIA agent Valerie Plame, special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald revealed that Lewis "Scooter" Libby, then-chief of staff for Vice President Dick Cheney, had told a grand jury he was authorized by bosses to leak classified information from a National Intelligence Estimate to reporters in the summer 2003 to defend intelligence used to justify the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

Fitzgerald employed that evidence in the prosecution of Libby, who was convicted of obstruction of justice and lying to federal authorities in the investigation of the CIA leak.

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