Printable Version
Securing Islamabad's Bomb: Pakistan’s Nuclear Controls
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto focused
new attention on the question of who is
controlling nuclear weapons in a nation
undergoing profound political instability. The
Center for National Policy invited two experts
on the Pakistani nuclear complex to discuss
this national security concern.
George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called for a reorientation of U.S. policy toward Pakistan as the best way to have positive influence in that nation and move us away from a perilous dependence on one military leader. Perkovich said the United States should speak to the interests of Pakistanis and what they care about. This approach could best assure consistent U.S. engagement and influence in Pakistan that could then improve our prospects of gaining cooperation on counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation issues. Perkovich suggested that tensions with India in Kashmir led the Pakistani intelligence services to support the growth of violent Islamist groups in the late 1980’s. These groups have recently “[taken] on a life of their own” and now threaten the Pakistani state itself.
Ken Luongo, of the Partnership for Global Security, said there are two main scenarios involving control over Pakistan’s nuclear complex that policy makers should focus on. First is the overthrow or destabilization of the Pakistani regime by extremist elements that would allow them to gain access to the nuclear complex. Second is infiltration of extremists inside the Pakistani nuclear complex who might sympathize with the extremists or simply sell the nuclear material and components to the highest bidder.
Since developing a nuclear weapon in 1998, Luongo cited several improvements in the security of the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure and arsenal. First is that a national command authority has been created, led by the President and the military, that controls who has access to Pakistan’s nuclear complex. Second, a “strategic plans division” run by the military, is physically in control of the nuclear complex. Finally, the Pakistanis claim to have adopted the “two man rule” in which it takes at least two people to launch a nuclear missile once the go ahead code is received.
On of the greatest national security challenges for the United States will be to promote Pakistan’s long-term political stability to help achieve better cooperation on counter terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation efforts. To accomplish these objectives the United States could:
George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called for a reorientation of U.S. policy toward Pakistan as the best way to have positive influence in that nation and move us away from a perilous dependence on one military leader. Perkovich said the United States should speak to the interests of Pakistanis and what they care about. This approach could best assure consistent U.S. engagement and influence in Pakistan that could then improve our prospects of gaining cooperation on counter-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation issues. Perkovich suggested that tensions with India in Kashmir led the Pakistani intelligence services to support the growth of violent Islamist groups in the late 1980’s. These groups have recently “[taken] on a life of their own” and now threaten the Pakistani state itself.
Ken Luongo, of the Partnership for Global Security, said there are two main scenarios involving control over Pakistan’s nuclear complex that policy makers should focus on. First is the overthrow or destabilization of the Pakistani regime by extremist elements that would allow them to gain access to the nuclear complex. Second is infiltration of extremists inside the Pakistani nuclear complex who might sympathize with the extremists or simply sell the nuclear material and components to the highest bidder.
Since developing a nuclear weapon in 1998, Luongo cited several improvements in the security of the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure and arsenal. First is that a national command authority has been created, led by the President and the military, that controls who has access to Pakistan’s nuclear complex. Second, a “strategic plans division” run by the military, is physically in control of the nuclear complex. Finally, the Pakistanis claim to have adopted the “two man rule” in which it takes at least two people to launch a nuclear missile once the go ahead code is received.
CNP Views
On of the greatest national security challenges for the United States will be to promote Pakistan’s long-term political stability to help achieve better cooperation on counter terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation efforts. To accomplish these objectives the United States could:
- Provide rhetorical and material support to Pakistani civil society groups that support the rule of law
- Support an international diplomatic effort to resolve the Kashmir dispute and resolve regional tensions
- Create a multi-year U.S.-Pakistani nuclear security exchange program to review personnel clearance, physical security and nuclear weapons doctrine policies