U.S. North Korea Policy Needs a New Framework

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

A CNP Conversation With Ambassador James Lilley

May 18, 2005

Summary

On May 18, 2005, former U.S. ambassador James R. Lilley addressed a gathering of Asia policy analysts and Congressional staff at the Center for National Policy on the two potential flash points in East Asia: North Korea, and Taiwan-China relations. The following is a summary of Ambassador Lilley’s remarks and responses to questions from participants.

North Korea: Need for a New Framework

The six-party talks to end the North Korean nuclear crisis are at a standstill. A new framework is needed, one that fully takes account of the interests of China and South Korea as well as those of the U.S.

To this point, U.S. diplomacy at the talks has not adequately done this. All the parties agree that the North’s nuclear program cannot be permitted; however, different countries assign different priorities to this issue. While China opposes the North Korean nuclear program, it does not believe it can afford to allow the North to collapse. Beijing is quite concerned that if the DPRK were to fail, a unified Korea would fall into Washington’s sphere of influence. South Korea also favors maintaining a stable North Korea, achieving change through gradual economic development and engagement. The ‘juche’ concept is not just a slogan; it appeals to deep national feelings that resonate in South as well as in North Korea.

U.S. policy has focused too narrowly on the weapons of mass destruction issue. The U.S. cannot expect other countries to act in its interests when they do not parallel their own, as has been the case with China and South Korea. The U.S. needs a new approach that genuinely incorporates Chinese and South Korean objectives with the bottom line American goal of complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of the North Korean nuclear program.

All six parties need to be working towards a common vision of the Korean peninsula. Such a vision needs to include: a denuclearized Korean peninsula; an economic development package that can be restricted if the North does not live up to certain standards of nuclear dismantlement; and mutual security guarantees, both multilateral and bilateral. There is some indication that the Bush administration privately may be ready to consider seriously such a proposal.

Cross-Strait Relations: A Mixed Picture

The level of economic integration between China and Taiwan is unprecedented. Cooperation between people on both sides of the Strait has significantly contributed to economic growth in China and continued prosperity in Taiwan. Moreover, cooperation in the information technology market has linked China, Taiwan, and the United States in a massive global supply chain. The visits by Taiwan opposition leaders Lien Chan and James Soong to Beijing were a political breakthrough. Hopefully, this is a signal that China is serious about finding a non-violent solution to this complicated issue.

On the other hand, Chinese military modernization and competition for energy resources are disturbing trends. The Chinese military build-up, with particular emphasis on naval and missile power, is designed to complicate American intervention in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Even more concerning for Washington is Taipei’s reluctance to move forward on the special weapons package that was initially offered in 2001. It is still impossible to tell if and when Taiwan will approve the special budget. Beijing, under the mistaken impression that arms sales to Taiwan encourage independence, regards Taiwan’s inaction on this front in a positive light.

Trends in China: The Challenge of Managing Change

A full-scale democratic revolution in China is by no means afoot at present. There is a profound interest among the Chinese elite in maintaining political control through the Communist Party to make sure that the chaos of the 1930s and 1940s never happens again. There is still a powerful force in the collective memory of the Chinese people of the corruption, torture, inflation, and starvation that existed in the country from 1937 to 1949.

However, there are slow and steady signs of progress with regard to human rights, financial transparency, and the rule of law. Treatment of prisoners is improving, political protests have increased significantly in the last few years, and the Chinese government has been working with American law schools of late. But, as recent press and internet restrictions illustrate, China’s move toward democracy will be a long-term evolutionary process, moving in fits and starts.

China’s leaders seem consumed with domestic issues for now. There are huge problems of corruption in their financial and construction industries that consume the majority of their attention. The new leadership has moved aggressively to establish energy relationships all over the world, but has paid much more for its oil than the current market price. If oil prices drop, there will be huge problems. For now, China’s attention will be primarily focused inwardly.

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