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Bush Using War To Rally The GOP

By Mark Silva, Chicago Tribune

June 15, 2006

WASHINGTON -- With his insistence that the war in Iraq is "worth it" and his unwavering promise of success there, President Bush is trying to frame congressional elections this November as a contest between a Republican Party resolute on the war in Iraq and a Democratic Party riven by divisions.

The president is unlikely to change many minds among opponents of the war after more than three costly years of battles and with violence certain to continue, analysts say. Instead, the full arsenal of public relations weaponry that Bush has deployed this week--a Camp David war summit and a surprise visit to Baghdad, followed by a Rose Garden news conference Wednesday--appears aimed more at stirring the Republican base for political battles ahead.

"Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand, because it's not going to happen," Bush vowed at his news conference Wednesday.

"As these campaigns start approaching, you'll hear more people say, `I suspect [the war] is a mistake. Bush shouldn't have done what he did. Pull out,"' the president said. "And that's a legitimate debate to have in America, and I look forward to the debate."

Kerry, Clinton at odds

As the GOP constructs that debate, it's no accident that House Republicans are staging a vote on a war resolution Thursday. It comes at a time when the Democratic Party is somewhat divided, with some leaders calling for a withdrawal of U.S. forces by year's end and others cautioning against any timetable--an argument that splits the party's 2004 presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), and its leading prospect for the 2008 nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). And Republicans seem ready to paint Democrats as vacillating on the war.

"It is essential to acknowledge that the war itself was a mistake," Kerry said at a Washington forum this week, calling on Bush to withdraw nearly all U.S. forces by year's end. "It was wrong, and I was wrong to vote for that Iraqi war resolution."

Clinton countered at that forum: "I do not think it is a smart strategy, either, for the president to continue with his open-ended commitment, which I think does not put enough pressure on the new Iraqi government. . . . Nor do I think it is smart strategy to set a date certain."

Bush, while hailing the promise that Iraq's new government holds for success over the insurgents, also has been careful to acknowledge that violence may never be eliminated there. "The challenges that remain are serious, and they will require more sacrifice and patience," he said Wednesday. "It's worth it, it is necessary, and we will succeed."

But with 60 percent of those surveyed in the latest Gallup Poll saying they disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, analysts say the president's insistence that the new Iraqi leaders lend him confidence is unlikely to win many converts.

Instead, they say, Bush's repeated promises of success in Iraq--like his promotion of a constitutional amendment defining marriage as a union of a man and a woman--is more a matter of re-energizing a core of GOP voters who may have lost confidence in the president.

"He is not after changing minds," said John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. "The first audience is the Republican base. Their concern is making sure there is a turnout in '06. The debate on gay marriage wasn't really a matter of trying to get a constitutional amendment approved. It was trying to remind the base that they are with them.

"A few independents might move back," Geer said of Bush's argument for success in Iraq, "but the real problem they have had in the polls is there has been a weakening in the Republican ranks, and that is a real disaster. . . . It's the classic strategy of playing to the base."

And that is classic Karl Rove strategy.

Rove, architect of Bush's two winning presidential elections and a key strategist for midterm elections in which the GOP will fight to maintain control of Congress, relishes this debate.

And with Rove seated comfortably to one side in the Rose Garden, it was telling that Bush noted that he, "along with others in the White House," had breathed "a sigh of relief" when a prosecutor concluded that Rove will not face charges in a CIA leak investigation.

Rove's release from the legal entanglement of a long-running investigation in which he appeared five times before grand jurors frees him to wage a political war that he has declared against the Democrats. It is a two-pronged campaign for Republicans committed to protecting national security and cutting taxes, while portraying Democrats as weak on security and tax-happy. On the road in recent weeks Rove has flatly denounced Democratic critics for "cut-and-run" politics.

"We're going to be just fine in the fall elections," Rove said in a recent address to the American Enterprise Institute. "And we're going to be fine because we stand for things that are important to stand for--strong national defense . . . a complete victory in the war on terrorism . . . . [and] economic policies that are pro-growth.

"The other party seems to stand for little except obstruction," he said.

`Define the debate'

Tim Roemer, a former Democratic congressman from Indiana and now president of the non-partisan Center for National Policy in Washington, warns that Democrats will be vulnerable this year if they allow the Republicans to exploit their differences and fail to make the midterm elections a referendum on the "failures" of the Bush administration, ranging from the war to the economy.

"To the degree that Karl Rove can get the debate to be between John Kerry and Hillary Clinton, he succeeds," Roemer said. "Where Democrats succeed is in a midterm referendum on the failures of this administration--spending too much, energy prices skyrocketing, Iraq being mangled tactically and strategically.

"Democrats need to define the debate: `Have you had enough of the tactical mistakes in Iraq? Have you had enough of energy prices gouging your pockets?"'

The president was voicing the Rove strategy in the Rose Garden, when asked about polls showing Americans say they are more likely to support Democratic candidates for Congress than Republicans this year.

"Listen, the elections are a long way off," Bush replied. "What's going to matter is who has got the plan that will enable us to succeed in Iraq and keep the economy growing.

"And I believe we're going to hold the House and the Senate," he said, "because our philosophy is one that is forward-looking and optimistic and has worked."