China's Military Build-Up

Friday, October 6, 2006

A CNP Panel Discussion with Peter Brookes, Michael O'Hanlon, and Ted Galen Carpenter

October 5, 2006

$FILE(47,To download an MP3 of this event click here.)

Before a full house on Capitol Hill, CNP hosted a distinguished panel of experts to discuss “China’s Military Build-Up: Consequences for East Asian and U.S. Security.” Moderated by CNP Vice President Scott Bates, the panel included Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, Ted Galen Carpenter of the Cato Institute, and Peter Brookes of the Heritage Foundation.

Kicking off the discussion, Ted Galen Carpenter argued that while we face a “rising power” in Asia, “China is not a malignantly expansionist power” but is a “conventional state power that is not a global strategic threat.” China lacks a credible nuclear first strike capability to threaten the US and will not be able to challenge US military predominance in this generation, he said. On the whole, he concluded, relations between the US and China are on a reasonably sound basis, with the only potential flashpoint being Taiwan.

While generally agreeing with Carpenter’s assessment, Brookings’ Michael O’ Hanlon, however, pointed to two particular concerns: the fast growth of China’s military budget and Beijing’s development of “niche” technologies, including cyber warfare capability, which could enhance its comparative military advantage. He noted that China’s strategic interests have always trumped a concern for human rights, especially in places such as the Sudan, and noted that the real test of China’s integration into the international system will be in how it addresses this issue in its international relations.

Peter Brookes, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asian Affairs under the Bush Administration, however, argues that no country will shape the 21st century more than China. Brookes cautioned that while Beijing’s intentions are pacific at this time, its intentions can change quickly, and warned that China has one of the fastest growing peace time military budgets in the world.

Following the presentations, much of the discussion focused on the cross-Strait relationship. Scott Bates cited a dramatic increase in China’s submarine fleet and noted Taiwan has not yet approved a substantial purchase program to ward off an air or sea borne assault on Taiwan. O’Hanlon expressed concern that the most likely scenario, in the event conflict were to break out, would be the PRC’s use of hit and run submarine attacks on Taiwanese shipping, which could effectively bring Taiwan’s economy to a halt. The panelists concluded that skillful diplomacy and policies of engagement are required to successfully integrate China into the international community to ensure it becomes a status quo power that avoids regional confrontation.

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